You’ve likely heard rebuttals to today’s National Research Council report questioning the viability of large-scale cellulosic ethanol production, the most prevalent being that it relies on an enormous number of assumptions. The text itself asserts “… with all the expertise available to us, our clearest conclusion is that there is
very high uncertainty in the impacts we were trying to estimate.”
However, there are points with which most in the cellulosic ethanol industry agree. These issues outline a path toward creating a viable and sustainable cellulosic ethanol industry.
I haven’t gotten through all 650 pages of the report yet, but a couple points stand out so far:
1. Inconsistent public policy is a barrier to the cellulosic ethanol industry.
This is a point that the ethanol industry has long maintained, and the report confirmed it, noting the 2008 request by Texas Gov. Rick Perry to waive the Renewable Fuel Standard.
“EPA denied that request, but economic dislocation
waivers are still possible. Undoubtedly, uncertainty of enforcement of the [Renewable Fuel Standard] is an impediment for private-sector investment.”
It goes on to point out the cellulosic ethanol tax credit is set to expire in 2012 and the Biomass Crop Assistance Program’s future is uncertain.
Producers and investors must know the lay of the land before they can move forward in this effort. If policies keep changing, there’s no confidence that what’s true today will be true tomorrow. The same is true for farmers looking to invest in the machinery to harvest biomass.
POET CEO Jeff Broin made this same point to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry at a March 30 hearing.
"Investors look at the long-term prospects of a project before getting involved, and uncertainty from Washington adds an element of risk to those projects," he said.
2. Lack of fueling infrastructure limits ethanol’s ability to enter the fuel supply at higher blend levels.
This has been an ethanol industry point for years: We have hit the “blend wall,” the point at which we’re blending all the ethanol at E10 that can legally be used in today’s vehicles. E15 buys the industry time to build out infrastructure, but as the report asserts:
“… even with a blend limit of 15 percent, the blend wall will be reached again around 2014. Thus, the blend wall is a major barrier for increasing ethanol production beyond about 19 billion gallons even if the blend limit is 15 percent.”
To proceed, we need a large effort to produce more Flex Fuel Vehicles and more Flex Pumps, which can dispense different ethanol blends such as E10, E30, E50, or E85. If the consumer can choose any blend, the oil industry will lose its strangle-hold on the economy.
“It would require large and rapid investments in fuel dispensers for E85 plus millions of flex-fuel vehicles produced and sold each year.”
There are about 8 million Flex Fuel vehicles on the road today, and both GM and Ford have committed to making half the new cars they sell in 2012 Flex Fuel. These efforts as well as efforts to get more Flex Pumps in stations across the U.S. must increase. The longer we wait, the longer it will take to break our reliance on oil.
These points and others are not a reason to stop cellulosic ethanol commercialization efforts. Rather, they clarify work that still needs to get done and stress the importance of work that is getting done to address these needs.
I’m working on another post addressing POET’s process for cellulosic ethanol in the context of this report. Look for that tomorrow and maybe more depending on how much of this I can get through.